Analyst Suverov: OPEC+ decision to cut production can stabilize the ruble
Investment Strategist at Arikapital Management Company Sergei Suverov in an interview with the agency “Prime” saidthat in recent months the ruble exchange rate has fallen by more than 20% against major world currencies – a “creeping devaluation” is underway.
According to Suverov, the main reason is that capital outflows exceed the trade surplus. It should be noted that this was the result of a reduction in oil and gas revenues due to the sanctions – in particular, the handing over of the Urals to Brent and a drop in export earnings. “Gazprom” following a sharp drop in gas supplies to Europe.
Another devaluation factor is the budget deficit. According to the analyst’s forecast, most likely, the growth of the dollar against the ruble will continue. However, there is still a reason why the exchange rate stabilizes at the level of 85 rubles per dollar – this is the decision of OPEC + to cut production by one million barrels per day and the shortage probable of hydrocarbons on the world market in the second half of the year, said Suvorov.
Former Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov notedthat in recent months the ruble exchange rate has changed for two reasons: an increase in imports and a decrease in export earnings. According to the minister, the ruble exchange rate will tend to strengthen.